Today let’s talk about a question a lot of people are asking: Why Warsh as the new Fed Chair? What exactly is he and Bessent trying to achieve together? Trump used to publicly pressure Powell hard for faster rate cuts, but he’s been much more tolerant of Warsh from the start. What’s the real logic here? Let’s walk through the data and timeline together.
1. Key Phenomena We’re Seeing
- Trump’s Words Are Moving the Markets
During the Middle East tensions, Trump has been actively using public statements to shape expectations. He repeatedly emphasized the need to reach a deal with Iran quickly, with one clear goal: bringing oil prices down. The pattern is consistent — when oil falls below $80 per barrel, his tone tends to get tougher; when prices rebound, he softens his rhetoric again.
- The Unusual Moves in the Data
Before the Middle East events, the dollar index was around 97. At the height of tensions it climbed to 100.6 and later broke above 101 (last time it reached that level was May 2025).
Oil prices surged from $70-72 per barrel before the events to a peak of $119, then started falling after Trump’s comments and are now below $80. Although ships are still occasionally passing through the Strait of Hormuz, normal traffic has not fully resumed.
Gold’s movement is even more striking: it was around $5,200 per ounce before the events and has since dropped to $4,200. The core issues between the U.S. and Iran remain unresolved, and Iran has made clear it won’t withdraw from Lebanon, yet gold prices have been clearly suppressed.
After the MOU was signed, oil prices fell quickly, but the dollar index did not follow — it kept rising, and stocks also rebounded.
- The Perfect Timing Between the MOU and Warsh’s Debut
The MOU with Iran was reportedly signed last Friday (June 18). Trump was still at the G7 summit but pushed to finalize it early — right before Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and press conference.
Once signed, oil prices dropped further while the dollar index climbed to 101. Right after Warsh’s debut, the dollar index pushed even higher. The entire sequence lined up extremely smoothly, with the timing clearly intentional.
2. Warsh
- Warsh’s Style: Deliberate Ambiguity + Strict Discipline
Warsh’s first appearance marked a clear break from Powell’s approach. He announced the creation of five new task forces to overhaul long-standing policy frameworks, stressed a reform-oriented direction, and emphasized strict monetary discipline.
He also paid tribute to Greenspan by adopting a more “ambiguous” style — not spelling out exactly what the Fed will do next, but encouraging markets to study the data and draw their own conclusions. This leaves room for flexibility while increasing uncertainty and volatility.
It works in a similar way to how Trump uses rhetoric to guide expectations: greater market turbulence creates more space for adjustments.
- Warsh’s Core Belief: Defending the Dollar’s Credibility
Warsh has long held a firm view: the dollar’s credibility cannot be undermined, and protecting it is the Fed’s top priority.
He advocates shrinking the balance sheet to control the overall money supply and maintain tight monetary sovereignty. At the same time, he sees AI boosting U.S. productivity and crypto/stablecoins extending America’s monetary influence. In his assessment, focusing only on short-term Treasury issues while ignoring longer-term challenges over the next 5–30 years would be short-sighted.
His remarks sent a clear signal to markets: even though no major actions have been taken yet, the Fed will gradually withdraw excess liquidity from the system. The dollar deserves respect, and excessive liquidity must be squeezed out. The Fed wants to regain control of monetary pricing power. Markets appear to have understood — the dollar index quickly broke above 100.
3. The Bigger Picture
When we connect the dots, the picture becomes clearer: after the Middle East events, the dollar index rose against the trend, gold was held down in stages, and oil prices were brought under effective control. These shifts have been concentrated in the past one to two months. Trump’s rhetoric managed expectations, Warsh’s policies added uncertainty while enforcing discipline, and together they are serving the goal of reshaping dollar credibility.
It looks like an energy and financial operation wrapped in geopolitical tension, with the central aim of stabilizing the dollar’s position. Of course, there are other pieces in the same framework — upcoming listings such as SpaceX and OpenAI, Wall Street’s push to bring trillions of dollars on-chain, and the new 7×24-hour crude oil and gold futures contracts.
4. A Note for Everyday Investors
Market uncertainty is only going to grow and become more complex. At the recent G7 summit, references to the old Plaza Accord resurfaced, signaling that global financial competition is now in full swing. The next few years could bring changes many of us have never experienced before.
The suggestion is simple: stay cautious, respect the market, and view these developments with a long-term perspective. Analyze rationally and avoid being whipsawed by short-term noise.
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